Desktop Linux: The Dream Is Dead

[Thomas Milne]

On Mon, Oct 18, 2010 at 10:05 AM, Michael Lauzon <mlauzon-Re5JQEeQqe8AvxtiuMwx3w at public.gmane.org> wrote:
> Don't blame me for the title, it's taken directly from the article.
> I'll post a link to the full article after the brief excerpt.  Do you
> agree or disagree with his conclusions?
>
> "It kills me to say this: The dream of Linux as a major desktop OS is
> now pretty much dead.
>
> "Despite phenomenal security and stability--and amazing strides in
> usability, performance, and compatibility--Linux simply isn’t catching
> on with desktop users. And if there ever was a chance for desktop
> Linux to succeed, that ship has long since sunk.
>
> "Over the past few years, modern Linux distributions such as Ubuntu
> have utterly transformed the open-source desktop user experience into
> something sleek and simple, while arguably surpassing Windows and Mac
> OS in both security and stability. Meanwhile, the public failure of
> Windows Vista and the rise of the netbook gave Linux some openings to
> capture a meaningful slice of the market. But those opportunities have
> been squandered and lost, and Linux desktop market share remains
> stagnant at around 1 percent.
>
> "I should emphasize that I'm not by any means talking about the demise
> of Linux itself. New projections from the Linux Foundation credibly
> show that demand for Linux on servers will outstrip demand for all
> other options over the next few years. And, as I'll discuss at length
> in this article, Linux has already established itself as a dominant
> operating system on mobile and embedded devices ranging from tablets
> and phones to TVs and printers.
>
> "But for anyone who has longed for a future in which free, open-source
> Linux distributions would rival premium commercial operating systems
> from Microsoft and Apple on desktop PCs, now might be a good time to
> set more-realistic expectations. Though I personally wish that the
> opposite were true, the year of the Linux desktop will never come."
>
>
> http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/207999/desktop_linux_the_dream_is_dead.html
>

I've read this article a million times before, and it'll be written a
million times more. Why? Because it gets people riled up and reading
the article and sells ad space. It's a headline with no body.

That's it.

The fact is no one, not even the heaviest IT guru on the planet, has
the slightest clue what the situation will be 3, 5, or 10 years down
the road. Look at the history of IT predictions and see how many of
them came true. Hell, the Mac was supposed to be done with years ago.

How do we know that 'compatibility' will even be an issue in a year or
so? The cloud could utterly strip Windows of that advantage. When
you're only using a browser there is very little difference between
Win and Lin for most users.

Or it could be that the entire idea of the desktop computer is
becoming moot. Who knows?

My recommendation is to avoid articles like this like the plague.
Anyone who claims to have even the vaguest idea what will happen with
computing in the future is selling snake oil, and is most likely just
trolling for an argument.

-- 
TBM
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