Input on future mobile platform

[Christopher Browne]

I think there's not likely to be anyone that has a coherent idea as to
what The Next Thing will be.

Further, the notion that it's Mostly About The Technology seems
laughable, because the customers that *buy* millions of mobile devices
aren't about the technology.

The *major* customers that will be determining what sorts of
functionalities are important in the next "remake" of the mobile phone
are, like,
  - China Mobile
  - Vodaphone
  - Airtel
  - SingTel
  - Telefonica
  - Orange
  - America Movil
that is, the operators of mobile phone networks, who are the ones that
purchase all but some statistically insignificant number of mobile
phones.

They're not particularly concerned about Java, or how much memory iOS
saves over Android.

Apple significantly disrupted their market, when they demonstrated
that the mobile carriers could make *more* money by selling expensive
iPhones, and giving up on the (expensive-to-manage) per-carrier
application stores.  Android showed that this wasn't just a flash in
the pan, but rather that it was a repeatable phenomenon.

It is in the interests of the customers buying mobile phones for there
to be competition between mobile phone manufacturers, for which reason
Windows Mobile and Blackberry haven't been dropped; it's valuable to
have options in the wings so that the carriers can, if provoked, bring
them out as alternatives to iOS/Android.

At some point, iOS and Android will presumably suffer from the same
problem that various past vendors have had; the code is eventually old
and somewhat crufty, and, more crucially, not flexible to cope with
some disruption that will take place five or ten years from now.
Symbian "died" because of that, as did PalmOS.  RIM seems to be in
that phase; it will be curious to see if they survive, because a small
niche isn't enough.

But since it is quite likely that, ten years from now, the set of
customers, namely China Mobile, Vodaphone, et al, will only have had
minor demographic changes, the needs that mandate picking a new phone
will likely still center around their needs in servicing their
markets.
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