Desktop Linux: The Dream Is Dead

[Colin McGregor]

On Mon, Oct 18, 2010 at 10:05 AM, Michael Lauzon <mlauzon-Re5JQEeQqe8AvxtiuMwx3w at public.gmane.org> wrote:
> Don't blame me for the title, it's taken directly from the article.
> I'll post a link to the full article after the brief excerpt.  Do you
> agree or disagree with his conclusions?

Rule ONE in the IT field: IT will ALWAYS go with the lowest cost
solution that does the job.

Years ago I remember feeling upset because of IBM's seeming domination
at the IT field, how IBM seemed to have a total lock on mainframe
computers to the exclusion of almost everyone else. IBM seemed to be
overcharging for what they were offering, while seemingly using ...
questionable ... tactics to continue in that role. Guess what, IBM
still has a near total lock on mainframe computers, but I (and most of
the rest of IT) doesn't really care. Why? Well, there are still a few
roles / jobs where BIG mainframes still do make sense, just not many
roles, and those niches are getting smaller each year.

So, why the near death of the mainframe computer? Well, a number of
upstart visionaries/entrepreneurs, like Paul Allen, Bill Gates, Steve
Jobs, Ken Olson, Jack Tramiel, and Steve Wozniak among MANY others,
showed that in many roles the mainframe could be replaced with far
less expensive hardware / software combinations. These various people
offered a lower cost solution that could do the job.

So, where are we now? Well, Microsoft has a seeming near total lock on
the desktop while using seemingly ... questionable ... tactics to
continue that role. Going forward, where does Microsoft stand? Well,
Microsoft are dead or dying in the server markets, and the embedded
device markets. I don't know what will happen to desktop market,
Microsoft may, like IBM with their mainframes, continue to dominate
the desktop market ... and almost nobody will care.

Microsoft can NOT compete on cost with Linux, so they will not be the
mainstream of IT. It MIGHT be that mainstream IT will be Linux based
smart phones backed up with Linux based servers, with Microsoft
holding a lock on a the steadily becoming irrelevant desktop market.
Regardless as to how things play out, I do know that the least
expensive solution will eventually win out as the mainstream IT
technology and that may mean a small Microsoft catering to a small
niche market...

Colin McGregor

> "It kills me to say this: The dream of Linux as a major desktop OS is
> now pretty much dead.
>
> "Despite phenomenal security and stability--and amazing strides in
> usability, performance, and compatibility--Linux simply isn’t catching
> on with desktop users. And if there ever was a chance for desktop
> Linux to succeed, that ship has long since sunk.
>
> "Over the past few years, modern Linux distributions such as Ubuntu
> have utterly transformed the open-source desktop user experience into
> something sleek and simple, while arguably surpassing Windows and Mac
> OS in both security and stability. Meanwhile, the public failure of
> Windows Vista and the rise of the netbook gave Linux some openings to
> capture a meaningful slice of the market. But those opportunities have
> been squandered and lost, and Linux desktop market share remains
> stagnant at around 1 percent.
>
> "I should emphasize that I'm not by any means talking about the demise
> of Linux itself. New projections from the Linux Foundation credibly
> show that demand for Linux on servers will outstrip demand for all
> other options over the next few years. And, as I'll discuss at length
> in this article, Linux has already established itself as a dominant
> operating system on mobile and embedded devices ranging from tablets
> and phones to TVs and printers.
>
> "But for anyone who has longed for a future in which free, open-source
> Linux distributions would rival premium commercial operating systems
> from Microsoft and Apple on desktop PCs, now might be a good time to
> set more-realistic expectations. Though I personally wish that the
> opposite were true, the year of the Linux desktop will never come."
>
>
> http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/207999/desktop_linux_the_dream_is_dead.html
>
> --
> Sincerely,
>
> Michael Lauzon
> --
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