The myth of 1% Linux market share.

Ken Heard ken-qoNZw2a/gFtBDLzU/O5InQ at public.gmane.org
Tue Nov 30 16:25:57 UTC 2010


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David van Geest wrote:

> That said, estimating market share based on website stats is also
> flawed.  This article contents that websites that pay to be counted
> are more likely to be visited by Windows users:
> http://broadcast.oreilly.com/2010/09/debunking-the-1-myth.html.  I'm
> not sure the logic is airtight there, but we can certainly agree that
> the numbers are likely to be skewed.  For example, Windows users could
> make more web requests on average than Linux users..... I don't think
> that's true, but it's an obvious example of how the stats could be
> biased.

Before my original post I had not read the article referred to above but
had read some of the references in it which I found independently, in
particular those relating to Steve Ballmer.  The points I made are
reinforced in this article and the comments thereon.

> The article above also quotes Steve Ballmer and Microsoft estimating
> Linux share at 8%, and saying Linux is a competitor.  I'm not sure it
> that's what you're referring to,

Yes.

> but it would seem that MS does indeed
> see Linux as a competitor and isn't underestimating its market share.

All in all, I think my guess of 10%+ is closer to the mark that
Ballmer's 8%.  Also of interest is that the Linux market share is
"significantly" above Mac's, but software, drivers, etc., for Macs are
eagerly supplied by manufacturers.  Why?  Because Bill Gates at a
critical moment kept Mac afloat so that he could claim that Microsoft is
not really a monopoly.

Until Linux gets more respect, we Linux users have to fight to be able
to use hardware.  The survival of so many manufacturers depends on that
all-important Microsoft certification; in addition they cater to Mac
with Microsoft's tacit approval.  Because however of the power of
Microsoft, many probably feel that if they cater to Linux as well they
may suffer financially -- a sort of self-regulation is probably at work
here.

Ken Heard
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