The myth of 1% Linux market share.

[David van Geest]

On Mon, Nov 29, 2010 at 2:39 PM, Ken Heard <ken-qoNZw2a/gFtBDLzU/O5InQ at public.gmane.org> wrote:
> In reference to recent chatter on the list about Linux market share, my
> own view is that that share is -- perhaps willfully in some quarters --
> underestimated.  The major difficulty is that Linux is not
> for sale. Microsoft and Apple operating systems are for sale;
> consequently there is a reference point -- the numbers sold.
>
> A further difficulty is that some huge but indeterminable number of
> computers sold today have a Windows OS already installed on them.
> Consequently an equally indeterminable number of computer buyers who
> want to use Linux find themselves forced to buy those computers.  After
> sale they discard the Windows OS and install their favourite flavour of
> Linux. Statistically however these buyers are numbered with the users of
> Windows OS users, I myself being among them.

That's all well and good, but the most common method of measuring OS
share is based on the User Agent string from connecting web clients.
I don't think anyone has used sale numbers for estimating the 1%.

That said, estimating market share based on website stats is also
flawed.  This article contents that websites that pay to be counted
are more likely to be visited by Windows users:
http://broadcast.oreilly.com/2010/09/debunking-the-1-myth.html.  I'm
not sure the logic is airtight there, but we can certainly agree that
the numbers are likely to be skewed.  For example, Windows users could
make more web requests on average than Linux users..... I don't think
that's true, but it's an obvious example of how the stats could be
biased.

The article above also quotes Steve Ballmer and Microsoft estimating
Linux share at 8%, and saying Linux is a competitor.  I'm not sure it
that's what you're referring to, but it would seem that MS does indeed
see Linux as a competitor and isn't underestimating its market share.
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