why I fear open source can't win the war

[Evan Leibovitch]

> This is some news but will it happen in Toronto is the key question. 
> Here we don't generally see Lenovo computers but more of IBM.

That's just a matter of clearing out old stock. Go to IBM's product page 
at http://www.ibm.com/products/ca/en/ and there's no mention of desktops 
and laptops. Just a link for "PC products from Lenovo", which takes you 
to the Lenovo Canada website.

Frankly, I don't see the fuss over this subject, and I don't see the 
logic that goes from "Sympatico won't support Linux" to "open source 
can't win the war". There are a few points to consider:



1) OEM problems with Linux diversity

When an OEM goes to pre-install Windows, there's almost never an issue 
of "which Windows". They install the one Microsoft gives them to 
install. When they go to install Linux, they have to answer the complex 
and often controversial question "which Linux"?

The US Walmart Linux systems come with Linspire pre-installed. To listen 
to some Linux people talk about Linspire, they'd wipe that system off 
their hard disk as fast as they'd wipe off Windows. The new Thinkpad 
deal pre-installs Novell, yet TLUG couldn't even find someone to talk 
about Novell/SuSE for the LinuxWorld distro comparison earlier this 
year. No matter _what_ an OEM chooses, a significant piece of the 
already-small market for Linux laptops will find the choice 
unacceptable. If Lenovo supports Novell and HP supports Red Hat, then 
going with either constitutes a subtle form of vendor lock-in (if 
official vendor support matters to you).

In the server world, OS options are greater, it's easier to buy systems 
with no OS so you can just add your favourite. Moreover, servers are 
more likely sold by VARs and consultants who are capable of handling 
installation, integration and support issues. Laptops and desktops, 
OTOH, are part of a numbers game in which high-volume retailers work on 
thin margins for a small number of items and want as little diversity as 
possible.

For the foreseeable future, Linux laptops and desktops will be the realm 
of do-it-yourselfers or companies who specialize in doing inexpensive 
"upgrades" of existing mainstream fare (see "Emperor Linux" for the 
archetype of this model).



2) Sympatico support

I have two brief things to say about that;

a) Again, it's a numbers game. Bell serves people who don't ready care 
(let alone know) about their computers. The first few levels of tech 
support are dumbed-down and heavily scripted to deal with this reality. 
Most people using Linux, by their very act of choosing Linux, 
demonstrate more awareness of their computers than Bell support can 
generally cope with. This is a good reason to have at least one system 
in your house that you can dual-boot into Windows, if for no other 
reason than as a diagnostic tool to help Bell support work within their 
limitations. Remember, you choose to be the exception to the masses 
they're used to dealing with. Anyone for whom you install Linux need to 
be aware of that in advance.

b) It's corporate culture; Bell support stinks, and that's not limited 
to Sympatico. Your experience with doesn't sound anywhere as nightmarish 
as what I've gone through regarding their regular phone service. That 
"Emily" voice-response cyber-operator is the most horrid implementation 
of such a system I've ever encountered; and I've waited a half-hour on 
hold for the privilege of being connected to "your call cannot be 
completed as dialled". Rogers, which has its own significant set of 
warts, couldn't be this bad on its worst day.



3) The future versus the present

Your experience with Bell doesn't indicate Linux's ability to become 
mainstream so much as it reflects on the current reality. To a certain 
extent there is some chicken-and-egg character to this (what comes 
first? Support for Linux or demand for it?), so breaking into the 
mainstream is a slow process that's more evolution than a war with a 
definitive battle. What we _do_ know is that:

- there have been sporadic attempts in North America to market Linux 
pre-loaded by HP and Dell, and these attempts have generally not succeeded

- there are many successful companies marketing Linux laptops outside 
North America; within the past week alone I posted a pointer to a story 
about the sale of four million systems in Asia, Africa and South 
America. In southeast Asia companies _must_ offer Linux on laptops to be 
competitive.

So the issue is not a matter of "is Linux going mainstream" so much as 
it is "when will we catch up to the rest of the world"? The answer to 
this is (or should be, IMO) one of impatience rather than despair.


- Evan


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